Are FCS vs. Power Four upsets a thing of the past? The college football landscape is evolving, and the gap between the FBS and FCS is widening. But in the world of sports, nothing is ever truly set in stone. As we look ahead to the 2026 season, there are six potential upsets that could shake things up and remind us that anything can happen on a college football Saturday. Personally, I think these games could be the ones to end the drought of FCS upsets over Power Four opponents. What makes this particularly fascinating is the contrast between the talent drain from FCS programs and the emergence of new, powerful teams. In my opinion, the transfer portal and NIL era have significantly impacted the dynamics between FBS and FCS. From my perspective, the data shows a clear shift in favor of FBS teams, but there are still opportunities for FCS programs to make their mark. One thing that immediately stands out is the talent gap between the two levels. FBS power conference teams have won an astonishing 125 straight games against FCS competition, and the trend shows no signs of slowing down. What many people don't realize is that this dominance is not just limited to the top-tier FBS teams. Group of Six teams have also struggled against FCS competition, with a rate of success that is down from previous years. If you take a step back and think about it, this raises a deeper question: How sustainable is the current power structure in college football? The talent drain from FCS to FBS is evident, with proven FCS programs like Sacramento State and North Dakota State making the jump. This shift is further emphasized by the success of FBS teams against FCS, with a .991 win rate since the NIL era began. However, this dominance is not without its challenges. The emergence of new, powerful FCS programs, like South Dakota State and Youngstown State, threatens to disrupt the status quo. These teams are not just making noise; they are winning games against FBS opponents, including top-tier teams like Kansas and Kentucky. Now, let's dive into the six potential upsets that could shake up the college football landscape in 2026. First, we have No. 3 South Dakota State taking on Northwestern. South Dakota State has the talent and the momentum, having won back-to-back FCS national championships. While they have struggled against Power Four opponents in recent years, they have the pieces to make a statement against Northwestern. What this really suggests is that the FCS is not just a stepping stone to the FBS; it is a competitive and dynamic level of college football. Next, we have No. 9 Youngstown State facing off against Kentucky. The Penguins have a quarterback in Beau Brungard who can make this an uncomfortable game for the Wildcats. This raises a deeper question: Can a single player make a significant impact in a game? The answer is yes, and it's a reminder that college football is not just about teams; it's about individuals making a difference. Then, we have No. 10 North Dakota taking on Nebraska. The Fighting Hawks have the talent and the momentum, having nearly pulled off an upset at Kansas State in 2025. This game could be a turning point for Nebraska, which has not lost to an FCS opponent in recent memory. What this really suggests is that the FCS is not just a lower-tier level of competition; it is a breeding ground for future FBS stars. Next, we have No. 14 Tennessee Tech facing off against Mississippi State. Mississippi State could be in a vulnerable spot, with a tough schedule and questions about their readiness for the season. Tennessee Tech, on the other hand, has the talent and the momentum, having gone 11-2 in 2025. This game could be a wake-up call for the Bulldogs. Finally, we have No. 17 Austin Peay taking on Vanderbilt. Austin Peay has the firepower to make this an interesting game, with quarterback Chris Parson being a finalist for the Walter Payton Award. Vanderbilt, on the other hand, is in a transition phase, with questions about their ability to sustain their recent success. This game could be a test of Vanderbilt's resilience. In conclusion, the 2026 college football season promises to be an exciting one, with the potential for FCS upsets over Power Four opponents. These games could be the ones that shake up the power structure and remind us that anything can happen on a college football Saturday. As we look ahead to the season, let's keep an eye on these six potential upsets and see if they can end the drought of FCS upsets over Power Four opponents. Personally, I'm excited to see what the future holds for college football, and I'm sure that these games will be a part of it.
